Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 3.065592 3.642394 4.284692 5.051035 5.938484 6.931779 8.125599
2025-06-29 2.069214 2.796038 3.699849 4.897605 6.433332 8.325429 10.820744
2025-07-06 1.496817 2.261681 3.307143 4.820202 6.929362 9.736598 13.720554
2025-07-13 1.256482 2.085047 3.309912 5.214428 8.052886 12.067521 18.098589
2025-07-20 1.031859 1.865678 3.188989 5.382538 8.849711 14.018973 22.172769
2025-07-27 0.874151 1.708396 3.119513 5.595028 9.714255 16.141839 26.712493
2025-08-03 0.719548 1.516304 2.948988 5.601039 10.231626 17.768593 30.648004
2025-08-10 0.571690 1.298934 2.688212 5.398642 10.356656 18.759327 33.650281
2025-08-17 0.448497 1.098229 2.415647 5.120722 10.295690 19.410544 36.129408
2025-08-24 0.371325 0.974285 2.265322 5.041672 10.570331 20.646770 39.698488
2025-08-31 0.311430 0.873535 2.141567 4.990645 10.881918 21.966733 43.521683
2025-09-07 0.282281 0.838862 2.151942 5.214310 11.751008 24.382672 49.526379
2025-09-14 0.241607 0.766323 2.067824 5.231280 12.223821 26.135792 54.540072
2025-09-21 0.205912 0.697535 1.979685 5.226541 12.654352 27.858862 59.677221
2025-09-28 0.174985 0.633175 1.889162 5.200700 13.034825 29.519431 64.846463
2025-10-05 0.168819 0.641949 1.988040 5.644820 14.511720 33.549589 75.060431
2025-10-12 0.152668 0.614366 1.984457 5.833657 15.427964 36.494649 83.317585
2025-10-19 0.139839 0.594065 1.996982 6.065206 16.470449 39.799644 92.580416
2025-10-26 0.121608 0.548964 1.928908 6.072816 16.975669 41.983279 99.663120
2025-11-02 0.100140 0.484139 1.787343 5.855528 16.897874 42.864683 104.029523
2025-11-09 0.080492 0.418540 1.627401 5.556627 16.570839 43.143245 107.094559
2025-11-16 0.068480 0.379878 1.545862 5.471597 16.787105 44.694643 113.107520
2025-11-23 0.058807 0.347581 1.478278 5.416691 17.075826 46.440740 119.694793